Thursday, March 26, 2009

One Day, My Balls Will Be Big Enough.

At least I wasn’t the Gigli last night. Whether or not I should have been is debatable.

So I played the Mookie yesterday after a last minute gesture of graciousness by another blogger. Maybe 5 hands in or so, I go heads up preflop with some random stranger holding KQo.

Flop is AQ5. He bets 77% of pot. I got a piece but I’m drawing to 5 outs at best. But let’s play it differently. What if I hit that flop harder, like 55, AJ or AQ? What would I normally do then, call? So I called.

Turn is a J, also giving the board 2 clubs. He leads out for 60% of pot this time. My 5 outs still might be clean + another 3-4 outs to the straight (Tc might not be good). But can I still legitimately represent a bigger hand than 2nd pair 2nd kicker? I think so. So I raise another 550. He tanks then calls.

River pairs the J. He tanks then checks. I can still tell my story here by betting large. I don’t think he has AQ or AJ; otherwise, the betting on the turn would probably be different (bigger turn bet and\or 3-bet my reraise). AK is a possibility considering his action so far, and the fact that I don’t know if he would fold TPTK right now is a consideration. I’d like to think the he would fold AT or worse to a big river bet, but then again, this is a blogger tournament. But I’m leaning heavily toward a big river bet because I put him on something like Ax. Maybe A5? AT through A8? I really think that if he’s got 2 pair or better on the turn I’m seeing a reraise, and his check on the river tells me AK at best.

But to tell the story, my best will cost me at minimum 90% of my remaining stack, which might as well be the whole thing. Then I start thinking about being the Gigli thanks to a bluff gone wrong, and how many times I’ve bluffed my way out of a tournament (albeit with much worse bluffs than this would have been). Not only that, I would have busted out first from a bluff gone wrong in a tournament that I got into via the courtesy of someone else. All these thoughts start to cloud my mind within the matter of 15 seconds. Maybe if I’m on my own bankroll I fire the last bullet, but in this situation, with 60% of my stack still intact, I think differently. And, despite getting to this point with nothing but 2nd pair and stupid play mega brass cojones, I make probably my biggest mistake of the hand.

I give up and check.

He shows A9 for TP with nut-flush draw on the turn. I seriously hope that he doesn’t call a huge bet there with TP no kicker, and by the time I busted, I saw enough of his play to think that he wouldn’t have. I think anything other than a club or a 9 would have got him to fold to a big bet on the river, and had he not been sooted, maybe even folds the turn. Instead, I spent the next hour trying to claw my way back.

I ended up busting out shortly after the first break after I ran my 33 into PL’s QQ AIPF, which was totally unfair since he had just won a couple hands prior with his own 33 vs someone else’s QQ despite the fact that he misplayed his hand (although, in his defense, QQ misplayed his hand as well). But it was a win-win-win for me since I didn’t have to worry about a much worse scenario: keep fighting as a short-stack only to get stuck playing during Lost yet still end up with no points or no money.

Payday is tomorrow. See you all again next week.

2 Comments:

At March 27, 2009 at 8:47 AM, Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

I doubt he fold to the river bet. Good fold. Try it earlier next time. :O.

 
At March 30, 2009 at 1:37 PM, Blogger jamyhawk said...

Seems like "any pair of aces" is calling all the way down these days.

I see a ton of people writing about bad beats or suckouts on FTP, lately. I wonder if they did make a change to their RNG.

Oh well, GL in the BBT4 (except when you're at my table).

 

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