Monday, December 03, 2007

Fantasy Football Week 13

How does a first place team bounce back from two consecutive losses? With it's best week of the season, that's how!

You can probably guess that I won this week. I'll spare the lengthy recap for a different kind of post, but here's a quick summary of how I won: Westbrook, E. Graham, Wayne & A. Johnson all had 120 yards + a TD. With the exception of my TE, everyone on my team scored in double digits (OK, Seattle's D had only 8, but close enough). I scored 110 points, and that was even with Anderson starting over Manning. And it couldn't have come at a better time - my opponent was in 3rd place and had plans to make it close with a monster game from his RB, Tomlinson. I'm still in 1st place by one game, but this victory all but guarantees that I finish in the money.

The bad news is that the 2nd place team had a huge week as well, and got some help when his opponent left Minn's AP on the bench in favor of Reggie Bush. I don't think it would've mattered though - he's got a solid team with several players running hot right now. But, his next game is against a pretty tough opponent - me.

No. 1 vs No. 2, this late in the season, with huge championship implications on the line. A victory here and I have a 2 game lead with 3 games to go, all but assuring me of 1st place. After him, my next two games are against weaker opponents, so I would have a chance to go into the championship game with the title locked up. A loss next week pretty much means that the championship will go to whoever wins the last game. So, with that said, how about a matchup comparison?

QB - Manning\Anderson vs Romo

I give my opponent the edge here - Romo has been unstoppable this year. Dallas goes up against a Detroit team that is horrible on defense right now. The most that I can hope for is that Detroit comes out with intensity and battles for a late playoff push, but I expect Romo to go off - again - next week. Manning & Anderson have great matchups (Balt, NYJ). I've played Anderson the past couple of weeks and it's been a mistake. Manning is stepping it up again and I think I'm better off rolling with him from here on out vs. an inexperienced DA. However, neither QB compares to what Romo's done this year, so I give him the advantage.

RB - Westbrook\Graham vs. Addai\McGahee

On paper, this looks like an advantage for him. Addai & Westbrook are both having huge years. McGahee vs Graham kind of looks like an edge for him as Lewis has had an solid year, but quietly, Graham has been on a tear lately - 100 yards and\or a TD in 4 of the last 5 games. I dunno where he came from, but I'm glad I grabbed him. What else can I say about Westbrook - no matter the opponent or the Eagles QB, he finds a way to produce. I just hope he continues to run as well as he has. Addai has been quiet lately, and you wonder if Indy is considering resting him the last couple of games. In the end, I give myself the edge here. Our backups are decent too - if Lynch is healthy, he has a great matchup against the Dolphins this week. His backup is Marion Barber who is also having a great year.

WR - Wayne\A. Johnson vs. Fitzgerald\Ward

Talk abot clash of the titans! Two top notch receivers on each side, plus our bench is pretty good too (Galloway vs. Harrison). Wayne is the stud of the four but Fitzgerald is having a huge year as well. Hines Ward is one of my all time favorite players, both in real life & in fantasy. Every year, you think he's going to decline, but still finds a way to come up big. Andre Johnson, if he was healthy, would be the No. 1 WR in fantasy - as it is, he's averaging over 20 pts a game, better than any WR right now. He just doesn't have the cumulative points. It's pretty much a wash, but for next week, it comes down to matchups. I've got a favorable one with Wayne vs. Balt, but I'm not as excited for AJ vs. Tampa. My opponent has two tough matchups - Fitzgerald in a huge game on the road vs. Seattle and Ward vs the Patriots. I give myself a slight edge here.

TE - Miller\Watson

My opponent has a huge edge here. Gates is a threat every week, while I've got a couple of decent but inconsistent TEs. Gates had a horrible week last week but I can see him bouncing back against Tenn. Miller started off hot for me but has really cooled down lately. Watson hasn't been that great lately either, but I'm leaning towards going with him over Miller.

K - Folk vs. Crosby

Not surprisingly, both of us have a solid kicker as well. Folk & Crosby are top 5 kickers this year, and we both have good matchups this week, so I consider this a wash as well.

Defense - Sea\GB vs Tampa

This should be interesting. Minn has been a good fantasy defense this year, and they have a great matchup on the road vs. Houston. Green Bay has a decent matchup at home against Oakland, but Seattle will be my defense this week. They're at home against Arizona, and I'm salivating at the thought of Seattle's pass rush going up against Kurt Warner, who's averaging about three turnovers a game. Defenses are hard to predict, and with both of us having great matchups, I'm calling this a wash also.


I like my chances this week - even as lucky as I've been this year, you don't become 10-3 without having a good squad. But my opponent has just as much of a chance this week as I do. Romo against Detroit is huge for him this week - I don't see how Romo walks away from that game with anything less than 350 & 4 TDs. I think it'll be a close battle this week, but because of that matchup right there, I'm giving my opponent the edge. I hate to do it, but all things equal, I think Romo will be the difference maker and give my opponent the victory.

OK, hopefully the fantasy football gods are done reading and missed this final disclaimer. Of course I'm going to say my opponent's going to win, it'd be bad karma not to. Manning is just as likely to go for 350 & 4 against the Ravens, with several of those going Wayne's way. Of course I give myself the edge. I fully expect to win this week - I OWN this league!


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