Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Fantasy Football Weeks 11 & 12

I don't have much to talk about poker wise, so let's talk about FF for a second.

I mentioned it briefly in my last post, but I'm officially on a losing streak. I'm still in first by 1 game, with a game next week against the second place team, so I'm in a crucial part of the season. With 5 games left, victories in my next two weeks may clinch first place for me. Anyways, here's an abridged version of the recaps from the past two weeks:

Week 11

I went up against Tom Brady this week and almost came away with a victory. Had I made a couple of coaching changes, like starting Ben Watson or Derek Anderson instead of Heath Miller or Peyton Manning, I would have been victorious. But, I started what I thought was my best possible lineup and it just wasn't meant to be. I learned a long time ago that there's no sense in getting frustrated when you start a team that's won 8 straight then loses one against a team with the top fantasy performer. I wasn't expecting to go 16-1, so I don't have a problem with this loss.

Week 12

Here's where I may have screwed up. I started overthinking my lineup and made some hasty choices.

First, I was without Marshawn Lynch last week, so I had to find a replacement. I picked up Maurice Morris as a Free Agent, and I thought that he was going to have a good week against the Rams. I know Seattle's been throwing the ball a lot more but Morris has put up decent numbers despite that, and against a weaker Rams team, I thought he could do the same. But I also had Joey Galloway on my bench going against a poor Redskins defense, and he's been on fire lately. So, without a clear cut replacement, I played my first 3 wideout lineup.

Secondly, I had to choose between Manning & Anderson. The past two games for Manning had been subpar but he was going up against a struggling Atlanta team. Anderson has been consistent, was the higher ranked QB, and was at home at against Houston. Atlanta was worse against the run than the pass, and with Harrison out, I figured that Addai would get the bulk of the offense against Atlanta, so I went with Anderson instead. Anderson still had a decent game, but Manning would've given me about 5 more points, almost enough for the victory.

Lastly, I made a quick lineup change on Saturday night. First, I started Ben Watson over Heath Miller. I felt that Watson had a better matchup and a better chance to get more catches. This worked in my favor - I don't even think Miller played - but it was only about 2 points. The other move was that I started Morris over Westbrook. It obviously was a bad choice since Westbrook had almost twice as many points. I figured with Feeley at QB against the Patriots that Westbrook would be a non-factor. The Patriots have been only average against the run but I didn't think that the Eagles would be able to move the ball as well as they did. However, it wasn't this move that gave me my loss.

Instead, the best move would have been to start Morris, Westbrook, Wayne & Johnson, leaving Galloway on my bench. Once again, I was burned by Galloway & his 2 catch, 21 yard day. Starting Morris for Westbrook meant I lost by 9 instead of by 2, but keeping Galloway in instead of either running back (or Earnest Graham) was at worst a 12 point deduction against me. I got duped by Galloway and broke one of the cardinal rules of Fantasy Football - always go with the running back. The only time when you should start 3 WRs is when you either don't have a 2nd RB to start PERIOD, or you've got three stud WRs who are producing every week. This situation was neither, and my decision cost me big time.

Other Thoughts

Going into this week, I have some tough choices to make again. Anderson goes up against a weak Cardinals D that just lost their top secondary player, while the Colts have a tough game against Jacksonville. I think Anderson is the right start here. Lynch is also most likely out, so I need to decide between Morris against Philly or Graham against NO. I'm leaning towards Graham since Seattle throws so much now, plus Alexander might be back. Tampa might have to rely on the running game more with Garcia possibly out.

The other tough decision is with my defense. Green Bay is on the road against Dallas, so they'll stay on my bench. Seattle looks like a decent play against Philly, but the Eagles actually look stronger with Feeley. If McNabb plays, I like this matchup more. I could also look to the waiver wire, but there aren't any great choices there either. I will probably have to roll with Seattle and just hope they don't cost me points.

The last decision I have to make is an easy one. I can guarantee you Joey Galloway will not start a game for me the rest of the season. I'm almost tempted to waive him outright in the hopes that someone picks him up and had to deal with him. Of course, the moment I waive him will be the moment he explodes for the rest of the season. But barring injury, I'm rolling with Wayne & A. Johnson at WR, no one else.


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