Monday, August 04, 2008

Who Makes This Call? Part 2

Sorry it took me so long to finally finish this post.

The general consensus from the three comments was that the villain was on a draw. It certainly seems like it with general weakness throughout the hand until the huge overshove to my reraise. What I was curious about was the argument for calling this raise even if you have your opponent on a draw.

However, considering the limp, I think we can exclude some of those drawing hands. Most AcXc hands would probably raise preflop, but almost certainly AcTc and better. Ac8c is a possibility. Any two-club hand is also a possibility, with Jc8c, JcTc and Qc8c\QcTc making him a 60% favorite. But his bet is designed to induce a fold, so it's also possible he's pushing with two overs & a draw, like KT or JT, or maybe Ac8s. Two pair, a pair with a draw, or even a straight can't be ruled out here as well. Long story short: even if he's on a draw, it's still a wide range.

The villain had only been at the table for just over one orbit when this happened, and I had no information on him from any prior games, so there's definitely an argument for folding as well. But in the end, two things stuck out in my head the most:

1. The action, IMO, screams "draw", and there's only a few drawing hands that I'm behind right now.
2. It's only the first break, but I have TP2K with a stack nearly 1\2 the size of the average stack.

I felt this was a good opportunity to get my chips with as a favorite and stay in contention for the rest of the MTT. So I called. Here's the hand in the entirety:

Full Tilt Poker Game #7411961375: $24,000 Guarantee (55623099), Table 116 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:49:38 ET - 2008/07/28
Seat 1: ItsOnlyIVIoney (3,256)
Seat 2: FishyLuckbox (7,320)
Seat 3: JohnnyBax (2,375)
Seat 4: Django_M (5,360)
Seat 5: jotan83 (2,550)
Seat 6: mclarich (2,795)
Seat 7: DMC5x (6,165)
Seat 8: jas225 (3,785)
Seat 9: buriedatsea (6,759)
jotan83 posts the small blind of 40
mclarich posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mclarich [Ks 9d]
DMC5x folds
jas225 folds
buriedatsea folds
ItsOnlyIVIoney folds
FishyLuckbox folds
JohnnyBax folds
Django_M folds
jotan83 calls 40
mclarich checks
*** FLOP *** [6c 9s 7c]
jotan83 bets 80
mclarich raises to 200
jotan83 raises to 2,470, and is all in
mclarich has 15 seconds left to act
mclarich calls 2,270
jotan83 shows [8s Qh] (woo hoo, just as I called it)
mclarich shows [Ks 9d]
*** TURN *** [6c 9s 7c] [5c] (puke)
*** RIVER *** [6c 9s 7c 5c] [Ac]
jotan83 shows a straight, Nine high
mclarich shows a pair of Nines
jotan83 wins the pot (5,100) with a straight, Nine high

So the results show that I got my chips in at about 60\40 favorite. Villain ends up hitting a brutal turn card and nearly knocks me out. Obviously a horrible play by him: there's so many hands I could have in that position that have him even more dominated that K9, but he finds a position needing only 12-outs and picks it up on the turn.

I wanted to post this because so often, there's the refrain, especially amongst bloggers, along the lines of "top pair is gold" (looking in Fuel's direction), but there's also a time when it's a good call to make. I hated putting my tournament life on the line with TP9K on the board, but given the way it was played, I felt there were more hands I was ahead of than I was behind, and it was a good place to "double up or go home" at this stage in the tournament. I was hoping to get some more feedback from other MTT players to determine if that kind of thought process is common, or if those that are more successful opt for the fold here & find a better spot at this stage.

Thanks for the comments everyone, and I look forward to any additional thoughts.


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